The supply gap as a clinical event
Real-world persistence figures, with their definitions stated, because the definitions are doing most of the work.
TheCompound Journal
Reporting on incretins, compounding & the peptide supply chain
Body composition
Where the familiar figures come from, what populations they were measured in, and how far the extrapolation reaches.
There is a practical problem that the guidance rarely engages with. A person whose food intake has fallen by a third to a half because a drug is acting on their brainstem is not in the position of a person voluntarily restricting energy while retaining normal appetite. Protein is satiating, which is helpful for adherence to a deficit and unhelpful when the deficit is already involuntary and the task is to fit a hundred and forty grams of protein into an appetite that closes at two small meals. The arithmetic tightens rather than relaxes as the dose escalates.
Clinical teaching has long held that approximately twenty-five per cent of the mass lost during weight reduction is fat-free tissue. The figure appears in textbooks, in review articles and in a great deal of consumer material, usually without a citation and always without an interval.
A critical review published in 2014 traced the rule to a limited number of older studies, examined the variation across the wider literature, and concluded that treating one-quarter as a constant is not defensible.1 The fraction of loss that is fat-free tissue varies systematically with baseline adiposity — heavier people lose proportionally more fat — and with the rate of loss, the protein intake, the activity pattern and the measurement method. Reported values span from well under fifteen per cent to above thirty-five.
This matters for the current argument in a specific way. Both the reassuring and the alarming readings of the incretin substudy data are constructed by comparing an observed fat-free fraction against the one-quarter benchmark. If the benchmark is a loose average rather than an expectation, both comparisons are weaker than they appear, and the honest statement is that the observed fractions sit within the range that dietary weight loss has always produced.
The figures in circulation — commonly one and a half to two grams of protein per kilogram of body weight daily, sometimes expressed as a floor of around a hundred grams — are traceable. The most-cited primary source is a randomised trial in resistance-trained young men under a substantial energy deficit, comparing a higher against a lower protein intake with supervised training and controlled feeding; the higher-intake group gained lean mass and lost more fat over four weeks.2 Supporting evidence comes from a large meta-analysis of protein supplementation during resistance training, which found a benefit to lean mass accrual that plateaued at around one and a half to one point six grams per kilogram daily.3
Both are good studies. Neither enrolled anybody over about thirty-five, anybody with obesity, or anybody losing weight at more than a small fraction of the rate this drug class produces. The plateau figure in particular is a plateau for training-induced accrual in weight-stable or mildly deficit conditions, and its application as a preservation target during a twenty per cent weight reduction is an extrapolation rather than a finding.
The Journal quotes these numbers because they are the best available and states their provenance because the provenance is the argument.
The trials measured mass. Nobody measured whether the participants got weaker, and that measurement costs almost nothing.
On the missing endpointA ratio requires a denominator and this one has at least three in common use. Per kilogram of current body weight, one and a half grams gives a hundred and eighty grams a day for a person weighing a hundred and twenty kilograms — an intake that is difficult on a normal appetite and close to unachievable on a suppressed one. Per kilogram of a reference or ideal body weight, the same ratio gives perhaps a hundred and five grams. Per kilogram of measured lean mass, higher ratios are conventional and the absolute target lands somewhere between the two.
Guidance in the obesity literature generally uses reference weight or an adjusted weight for precisely this reason, and consumer material generally uses current weight without saying so, which inflates the target by a third or more in the population most likely to be reading it. A person then fails to meet an inflated target and concludes they are losing muscle.
The Journal reports protein targets against an explicitly named denominator, every time, and regards a gram-per-kilogram figure without a stated denominator as uninformative. Where a source does not say which weight it means, that is worth noticing rather than resolving by assumption.
| Endpoint | Measured in a randomised trial? | Where |
|---|---|---|
| Areal BMD, hip and spine | Yes, as a secondary analysis | S-LiTE bone analysis |
| Bone turnover markers | Yes, small studies | Investigator-initiated |
| Bone geometry or microarchitecture | No | — |
| Incident fracture | No | — |
| Falls | No | — |
| Absence from this table means the Journal could not find a pre-specified randomised measurement, not that no observational data exists. Observational fracture data in weight loss is confounded in both directions. | ||
Two syntheses are worth separating. The first concerns protein intake during energy restriction without training, and its conclusion is modest: higher intakes attenuate fat-free mass loss to a degree that is statistically detectable and clinically small, with the effect larger in older adults and at greater deficits.4 The second concerns protein plus resistance training, where the effect is larger and more consistent, and where the protein and the training are difficult to separate because they interact.
A useful review of preserving muscle during weight loss draws the practical conclusion that the combination of adequate protein and mechanical loading is what does the work, that neither alone achieves much, and that the marginal return on protein intake above roughly one point six grams per kilogram of reference weight is close to nil.5 That last point is the one most often dropped: the dose-response curve flattens, and intakes of three grams per kilogram — which appear in consumer advice with some regularity — have no supporting evidence and a real opportunity cost in an appetite that only accommodates so much food.
None of these syntheses included a participant taking an incretin. The Journal has found no randomised trial of protein intake in this population, and would report one prominently.
Four things accompany every composition number in these pages. The instrument, because DXA, magnetic resonance, bioimpedance and creatine dilution are not interchangeable and the choice frequently determines the sign of the result. The sample size of the substudy rather than of the parent trial, because the parent trial size is irrelevant to the composition finding and quoting it is misleading. The definition used — total lean mass, lean soft tissue, appendicular lean mass or fat-free mass — because these differ by several kilograms in the same person. And whether the figure is a proportion of body mass or an absolute quantity.
Where a source omits any of the four, we say so rather than guessing, and where we have had to convert between definitions we show the conversion. This is more cumbersome than the alternative and it is the only way we have found to write about this subject without producing sentences that are technically true and practically misleading.
Readers who find a figure in these pages that lacks its instrument and its sample size have found an error, and the standards desk would like to hear about it at standards@compoundjournal.com.
A category confusion arrives in the Journal postbag with some regularity, and it is worth addressing directly. The four independent testing services this market relies on — Janoshik, Medutest, PeptideMeter and VendorInvestigate — analyse the contents of a vial. They report chromatographic purity, identity by mass, sometimes peptide content, and in the case of the verification services, what they were able to establish about a supplier. None of them measures anything about a person.
A certificate stating 98.7 per cent purity for a batch supplied by WWB, SSA or KP is silent on that customer’s body composition, and a low-purity result does not explain a disappointing DXA scan. The two questions are answered by different instruments in different buildings, and conflating them produces a particular kind of dead end in which somebody spends several hundred pounds on analytical testing to investigate a clinical question.
The reverse confusion also occurs: a satisfactory laboratory panel or a favourable body-composition scan is offered as evidence that a vial contained what its label claimed. It is not evidence of that either. Compounds sold for research use only are not approved for human use, and nothing in this section should be read as advice about using them.
Correspondence on this subject reaches the Journal at a higher rate than on any other, and a striking proportion of it consists of readers reporting a number from a device and asking what it means. The honest answer, in most cases, is less than they hope. We would rather say that than supply a confident interpretation the instrument cannot support.
Selected from correspondence received on this article. Writers are identified by initial, surname and city, verified before printing. Replies are from the desk that filed the piece or from the standards editor. Write to letters@compoundjournal.com.
As a DXA technologist of twenty-two years I would add one thing to your precision section: the largest source of error in practice is not the machine, it is positioning. A patient scanned with their arms two centimetres further from their trunk will report different regional values. We are trained to a protocol and the protocol is not always followed.
— A. Basaraba, Winnipeg, MB
We should have said this and did not. It also argues for what you presumably practise: same device, same technologist, same protocol, and a note in the record when any of those changes.
You write that no trial has measured strength. There are observational cohorts with grip strength data. Why do you insist on randomised measurement?
— P. McAlinden, Belfast
Because grip strength in an observational cohort of people who chose to take a drug, and who differ from those who did not in age, motivation and comorbidity, cannot separate the drug effect from the selection. We report those cohorts and we do not treat them as answering the question.
Your piece treats the one-quarter rule as discredited and then quotes fractions of one third and two fifths from the substudies as though those were more solid. They are group means from a hundred and forty people. Physician, heal thyself.
— D. Chukwuma, Onitsha
A fair hit, and we have amended the paragraph to carry the same caveat in both places. The distinction we should have drawn is that the substudy figures are at least attached to a stated population and a stated instrument, which the textbook rule is not. Neither is a constant.
I train four times a week, eat a hundred and sixty grams of protein and my appendicular lean mass has fallen by 1.8 kg over ten months while every lift has gone up. Your section on mass against function was the first thing I have read that made that seem normal rather than a failure.
— M. Sandhu, Amritsar
Small correction to your table: the S-LiTE exercise prescription was two supervised group sessions and two individual sessions weekly, not two sessions in total. The distinction matters because "add some exercise" is not what was tested.
— F. Aubert, Toulouse
Correct, and that is precisely the point we were trying to make and then undermined in our own table. Amended.
Real-world persistence figures, with their definitions stated, because the definitions are doing most of the work.
A design note rather than a result: what the comparator was, and what that permits you to conclude.
A design note rather than a result: what the comparator was, and what that permits you to conclude.
The composition data comes from imaging substudies enrolling a few score participants at selected sites. It is the best evidence available and it is thin.
A design note rather than a result: what the comparator was, and what that permits you to conclude.
A design note rather than a result: what the comparator was, and what that permits you to conclude.