Six things incretin pharmacology cannot currently predict
The mechanism is well described. The variance is not.
TheCompound Journal
Reporting on incretins, compounding & the peptide supply chain
Exposure
What the in-vitro data supports, what it does not, and where the extrapolation to a person begins.
An earlier version stated that time to steady state depends on the dosing interval. It depends only on the elimination half-life; the interval determines the accumulation ratio.
Twenty years of receptor pharmacology sits behind the molecules currently being argued about on the internet, and almost none of it is contested. What is contested is what follows from it. This piece deals only with the first part: what is known, at the receptor, with reasonable confidence, and what the strength of that evidence actually is.
The GLP-1 receptor belongs to class B of the G-protein-coupled receptor superfamily — the secretin-like receptors — which is a structural classification with practical consequences. Class B receptors have a large extracellular domain that captures the C-terminal portion of a peptide ligand first, in what is usually described as a two-domain binding model: the extracellular domain provides affinity, and the N-terminal residues of the peptide then insert into the transmembrane bundle to provide activation.
That architecture is why these receptors are difficult small-molecule targets and why, for two decades, every marketed agonist was a peptide. It is also why the orally available non-peptide agonists now in late-stage development are genuinely notable pharmacology rather than a formulation trick: they bind a site that a peptide does not occupy in the same way, and they activate the receptor through a partially distinct mechanism.1
The consequence for a reader trying to compare molecules is that structural class predicts a great deal about route, durability and formulation, and rather less about efficacy.
When the GLP-1 receptor is activated it can couple to Gαs, raising cyclic AMP, and it can recruit beta-arrestin, which contributes to receptor internalisation and desensitisation. An agonist that favours the first over the second is described as G-protein-biased. The therapeutic argument for bias is that sustained cAMP signalling without proportionate internalisation should produce a more durable effect at the same occupancy.
The evidence for that argument is real but narrower than its popularity suggests. Bias is measured in transfected cell systems at receptor densities that bear no relationship to a beta cell or a vagal afferent, and the translation from a bias factor in vitro to a clinical difference in vivo has been demonstrated convincingly for very few ligands.2 The Journal’s position is that bias is a legitimate and probably important variable, that it is one of several plausible explanations for the differences observed between molecules, and that anybody presenting it as the explanation is ahead of the data.
The spread around the mean is the largest unexplained quantity in the field, and nothing measurable at baseline predicts it.
On the response distributionThree quantities are routinely conflated in discussions of this class. Affinity is how tightly a ligand binds, usually reported as a dissociation constant. Potency is the concentration producing half-maximal response, reported as an EC50. Efficacy is the maximal response achievable, reported relative to a reference agonist. A molecule can be more potent and less efficacious than another, and a molecule can bind a second receptor with high affinity and produce almost no response there.
Selectivity is the ratio of activities across receptors, and it is where the current pipeline diverges most sharply. Reported GIP-to-GLP-1 activity ratios for dual agonists vary by more than an order of magnitude between molecules; glucagon receptor arms in triple agonists vary similarly. Those ratios are properties of the sequence and they are not adjustable by dose. Two molecules with different ratios are different drugs at every dose, which is the reason head-to-head trials cannot be replaced by cross-trial comparison.3
| Half-life | Accumulation ratio | 90% of steady state | 97% of steady state |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 days | 1.35 | 10 days | 15 days |
| 5 days | 1.66 | 17 days | 25 days |
| 7 days | 2.00 | 23 days | 35 days |
| 9 days | 2.33 | 30 days | 45 days |
| Calculated for first-order elimination and a 7-day dosing interval. Illustrative; not a dosing instruction. | |||
Three engineering strategies account for essentially every long-acting agonist on the market. The first is substitution at the DPP-4 cleavage site: replacing the alanine at position 8 with a residue the enzyme cannot process removes the fastest route of degradation. The second is acylation with a fatty-acid chain, which promotes reversible binding to serum albumin; albumin-bound drug is protected from renal filtration and enzymatic attack, and dissociates slowly to provide a circulating depot. The third is fusion to a large carrier — an immunoglobulin Fc fragment, for instance — which raises the hydrodynamic radius above the glomerular filtration threshold.
Semaglutide uses the first two, with a C18 diacid linked through a spacer. Liraglutide uses a shorter C16 chain and achieves roughly thirteen hours rather than seven days, which is a useful demonstration of how much the chain contributes. Dulaglutide takes the fusion route. The strategies are not interchangeable and they produce different distribution and clearance behaviour, not merely different durations.4
An orally bioavailable small molecule that activates a class B GPCR was, for a long time, considered close to impossible. The current crop of non-peptide GLP-1 receptor agonists achieves it by binding a site that overlaps only partially with the peptide binding pocket, stabilising an active conformation without the two-domain capture mechanism.
Pharmacologically this matters for three reasons. Absorption does not depend on a permeation enhancer, so bioavailability is far less variable and far less dependent on fasting state than oral semaglutide’s. Elimination is hepatic rather than largely renal and proteolytic, which changes the interaction profile. And potency at the receptor is achieved without a fatty-acid albumin depot, so the concentration-time profile looks like a conventional small molecule rather than a peptide. None of this predicts efficacy; all of it predicts a different practical drug.
Slowed gastric emptying is frequently described as a side effect. It is more accurately described as a mechanism that becomes an adverse effect at sufficient magnitude. Delayed emptying blunts the post-prandial glucose excursion, which is part of the glycaemic benefit, and it produces early satiety, which is part of the weight effect. Beyond a threshold it produces nausea, vomiting, reflux and the sensation of food sitting undigested.
Two properties of the effect matter clinically. It is dose-dependent, and it exhibits partial tachyphylaxis: the magnitude of delay attenuates over weeks of continued exposure at a fixed dose, which is the physiological basis for the observation that tolerability improves if a dose is held rather than escalated. The residual delay at steady state is real and is the reason pre-procedural fasting guidance for this class exists at all.5
An argument could be made that receptor pharmacology is a specialist concern and that readers need practical guidance instead. The Journal’s position is the opposite, for a specific reason: almost every piece of bad advice circulating about this drug class is a mechanistic error with a practical conclusion attached.
Escalating on a fixed calendar regardless of symptoms is an error about accumulation kinetics. Splitting a weekly dose into daily fractions to reduce side effects is an error about half-life and steady state. Assuming a molecule with GIP activity is simply a stronger version of one without is an error about selectivity. Expecting weight to keep falling indefinitely is an error about energy balance. In each case the practical advice is wrong because the mechanism was misunderstood, and in each case understanding the mechanism is not much harder than memorising the rule.
Cagrilintide is not a GLP-1 receptor agonist. It is repeatedly described as one, including by people who should know.
On class confusionEverything above is drawn from the peer-reviewed pharmacology and clinical literature and from regulatory assessment reports, which are more informative than the papers on questions of dose selection and exposure. Where a claim rests on in-vitro work in transfected cells, this piece says so, because the translation of such work to human physiology has failed often enough in this field to deserve a standing caveat.
Where the Journal reports a trial number it states the estimand behind it, because the treatment-policy and trial-product estimands differ by two to three percentage points in the obesity programmes and the difference is routinely lost in secondary coverage. Nothing here is a recommendation, and none of the compounds discussed as research chemicals are approved for human use.
Agonist: a ligand that binds a receptor and produces a response. Full agonist: one producing the maximal response the system permits. Partial agonist: one producing less than maximal response even at full occupancy. Analogue: a molecule structurally derived from a natural ligand. Mimetic: a molecule reproducing a natural ligand’s effect without structural derivation.
Orthosteric site: the binding site the natural ligand occupies. Allosteric site: a distinct site whose occupancy modulates activity at the orthosteric one. Biased agonism: preferential activation of one downstream pathway over another. Tachyphylaxis: diminishing response to repeated administration. Steady state: the condition in which the rate of drug entering the body equals the rate leaving it.
Precision here is not pedantry. Several of the arguments this publication receives by post turn out, on inspection, to be disagreements about which of these words the writer meant.
Three things, on the Journal’s assessment. First, the demonstration that a dual agonist could produce weight reduction approaching bariatric-surgical magnitude moved the field’s expectations, and with them the design of every subsequent programme. Second, the cardiovascular and renal outcome results reframed the class from metabolic-cosmetic to cardiometabolic, which changed reimbursement arguments far more than it changed prescribing.
Third, and least remarked, the pharmacology of oral administration became tractable. That is a manufacturing and access story as much as a scientific one: an oral small molecule has a completely different cost structure, cold-chain requirement and supply profile from an injectable peptide, and if it holds up in phase 3 it will do more to change who can get treated than any of the receptor science described above.
What remains genuinely open is the variance. Mean effects in this class are among the best-characterised in modern pharmacology, and individual response remains unpredictable in a way that no receptor-level account currently explains. Until that changes, the most defensible thing anybody can say about an individual starting treatment is that the average is well known and their own result is not.
Selected from correspondence received on this article. Writers are identified by initial, surname and city, verified before printing. Replies are from the desk that filed the piece or from the standards editor. Write to letters@compoundjournal.com.
I found the section on the area postrema genuinely clarifying. I had assumed nausea was a stomach problem and had been treating it as one, unsuccessfully, for four months.
— P. Kovalenko, Lviv
You describe biased agonism as "legitimate and probably important" and then decline to say which molecules are biased in which direction. That is a strange place to stop.
— D. Ramkissoon, Port of Spain
It is, and it is deliberate. The published bias factors for these ligands are measured in different systems and are not comparable to one another. We would rather stop than publish a ranking that the underlying assays cannot support.
A small thing: you write "class B GPCR" and then "secretin-like receptor" as though these were different classifications. They are the same family under two naming conventions, and the piece would be clearer if it said so.
— R. Anand, Pune
Fair, and now stated in the text.
The mechanism is well described. The variance is not.
The evidence base is thin and the document says so, which is to its credit.
A plateau at an intermediate dose and a plateau at the maximum dose look identical from the outside and mean different things.
One randomised trial has combined a GLP-1 receptor agonist with supervised exercise. Its result is the single most useful piece of evidence in this area.
The class is described as though every molecule in it did the same thing. At the receptor, they demonstrably do not.
The evidence is real, modest, and mostly retrospective. The guidance is correspondingly cautious and has been revised toward individualisation.